As the Ukraine war ratcheted up political tensions between the US and Russia, the head of Russia’s Roscosmos space agency tried to use the countries’ partnership in the International Space Station (ISS) as a bargaining chip. Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin demanded that the West end its sanctions on Russia or the country would end its cooperation on the ISS, leaving the partnership in an awkward state. But earlier in July, Rogozin was dismissed and replaced by former Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov. At roughly the same time, the US and Russia came to an agreement that would see Russian cosmonauts fly to the station on SpaceX’s Dragon vehicle in exchange for astronauts getting seats on Soyuz launches.
This might have been seen as an indication that the new administration at Roscosmos was in a more cooperative mood. Any such hopes were dashed on Tuesday, when Borisov announced that Russia would not be renewing its current commitment to the ISS, which ends in 2024. NASA’s current plans involve keeping the station occupied through the end of the decade.
Russia has supplied a number of modules to the ISS, and its segments host solar panels that contribute to the station’s power budget. More critically, it has provided the thrust that allows the ISS to maintain its orbit, which would otherwise gradually decay. At present, it’s unclear what will happen to Russia’s hardware when the country exits the partnership.
Still, the availability of Dragon crewed vehicles has made Russia’s participation less essential than it was just a few years ago. And by fulfilling its commitments to the end of 2024, Russia will provide NASA with a significant amount of time to develop alternate plans that could allow the ISS to remain occupied through 2030.
According to The New York Times, Borisov told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the 2024 date gives his country time as well. “I think that by this time, we will begin to form the Russian orbital station,” he said.
That seems pretty unrealistic. Roscosmos was strapped for cash well before Western sanctions were imposed on Russia, and those sanctions will make it very difficult for the agency to find any paying customers for its launch services. Beyond cash, Russia will have difficulty accessing electronics and other high-tech components that would be essential for any new orbital station.
While the announcement removes one element of uncertainty—the NASA/Roscosmos partnership, strained for years, appears to be ending—there will still be many details that need to be filled in before we know exactly what either agency expects to happen in 2024.
